Arbitrage Betting (Arbing) Explained

If you like sports betting, we are sure, you’ve probably heard the term “arbitrage” before. This term is generally used for “no-lose bets” or “sure bets”. In other words, you can make a profit regardless of the outcome of the match. Sounds too good to be true, doesn’t it?

Arbitrage betting is indeed possible, and if you know what you are doing, you can always win regardless of the outcome of the match. In this guide, we’ll explain how you can do that.

What Is Arbing?

How many outcomes can a match have? That’s three in total: Either Team A wins, Team B wins, or the match ends in a draw. It is not possible to have an outcome other than these. For the same reason, if a bettor puts money on all of these outcomes, they will win regardless of the outcome. Let’s give a simple example:

• 2.50 odds are offered for the “Team A wins” outcome. You put 10 EUR for this bet: if you win, the payout will be 25 EUR.
• 2.50 odds are offered for the “Team B wins” outcome. You put 10 EUR for this bet: if you win, the payout will be 25 EUR.
• You spent a total of 20 EUR. However, whatever the outcome, you will win 25 EUR, so you have made a net profit of 5 EUR.

This is how arbing is defined in its simplest form: placing a bet on all possible outcomes and making a profit regardless of the outcome. Careful readers have noticed two things. First, we did not place a bet on the draw outcome. Two, both teams have the same odds: in real life, when betting on platforms like VulkanBet, this is something that happens very rarely.

We did not place a bet on the draw outcome because it was the least likely outcome. By leaving it out of the calculation, we simplified things and used our budget more efficiently. The basis of arbitrage bets is to simplify the outcomes and gather them under two groups. Theoretically, you can also include a third group (the draw outcome) in the calculation, but then the number of arbitrage opportunities you can use will decrease, and the calculations you have to make will start to get serious. Therefore, only two basic types of bets are used in this system, back (win) and lay (lose). Of course, there is still a possibility that the match will end in a draw, but this is a risk that can be ignored.

The fact that the odds are the same is due to the example we gave. We wanted to give a simple example to explain arbitrage bets, so we used identical odds. In reality, you have to calculate bets according to the odds offered for all outcomes to make a profit regardless of the outcome. In other words, you must bet a different amount for each outcome. For example:

• 3.00 odds are offered for the “Team A wins” outcome. You deposit 13.33 EUR for this bet: if you win, the payout will be 39.99 EUR.
• 6.00 odds are offered for the “Team B wins” outcome. You deposit 6.67 EUR for this bet: if you win, the payout will be 40 EUR.
• You spent a total of 20 EUR. However, whatever the outcome, you will win 40 EUR, so you have made a net profit of 20 EUR.

The important thing for arbitrage bets is to equalize the payout amounts. You should determine the stakes accordingly: As long as you get the same payout, you have an arbitrage opportunity. In practice, these calculations can be complex, so we recommend using an arbitrage calculator. You can find free versions of these online.

Why Isn’t Everyone Making Arbitrage Bets?

After reading these explanations, you probably have the following question in your mind: If it’s that simple, why isn’t everyone making arbitrage bets? Why do bettors take risks? This question has multiple answers:

To place arbitrage bets, you need to find the right odds. These odds must be of the type that will allow the payouts to equalize. To prevent this, bookmakers determine the odds through computer programs, eliminating arbitrage opportunities. In real life, it is very difficult to find odds that will allow you to make a net profit.

Arbitrage is a prohibited tactic in almost all bookmakers. It is not possible to place an arbitrage bet on the same bookmaker: You will either use two different bookmakers or open two different accounts with the same bookmaker. Both of these are considered actions that could result in your account being terminated. For this reason, this tactic can almost always be used only on betting exchanges, and the way they work is quite different: they don’t appeal to average bettors.

It is not possible to become a “millionaire” with arbitrage bets. You can’t even win big numbers. Yes, you make a profit, but it is always quite small: You cannot make a living using arbitrage bets alone. Since you equalize payouts, you also have to be content with guaranteed but limited profits.